{"id":491,"date":"2010-12-01T10:42:00","date_gmt":"2010-12-01T13:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scienceblogs.com.br\/hypercubic\/2010\/12\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\/"},"modified":"2010-12-01T10:42:00","modified_gmt":"2010-12-01T13:42:00","slug":"uma-bolha-de-otimismo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\/hypercubic\/2010\/12\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\/","title":{"rendered":">Uma bolha de otimismo"},"content":{"rendered":"

><\/p>\n

Economia \u00e9 uma coisa complicada e imprevis\u00edvel. T\u00e3o complicada e imprevis\u00edvel que os caras da Weekly Letter<\/i> [Carta Semanal<\/i>], a revista da Sociedade Econ\u00f4mica de Harvard, demoraram a perceber a gravidade da crise de 1929. Eis alguns excertos dos n\u00fameros da WL<\/i> publicados durante o primeiro ano da Grande Depress\u00e3o:<\/div>\n
\n
Uma depress\u00e3o severa como a de 1920-21 est\u00e1 totalmente fora do alcance da probabilidade. (WL<\/i>, 16 de novembro, 1929)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Ningu\u00e9m mais se lembra da crise \u201csevera\u201d de 1920-21. J\u00e1 a improv\u00e1vel depress\u00e3o de 1929 era apenas uma recess\u00e3o gen\u00e9rica: <\/div>\n
\n
Com as condi\u00e7\u00f5es apresentadas, acreditamos que a recess\u00e3o nos neg\u00f3cios em geral ser\u00e1 breve e melhoras devem chegar durante os meses da primavera. (WL<\/i>, 18 de janeiro, 1930)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
E em plena primavera a situa\u00e7\u00e3o era essa: <\/div>\n
\n
Os pre\u00e7os, em geral, est\u00e3o agora no ponto mais baixo e logo v\u00e3o melhorar. (WL<\/i>, 17 de maio, 1930)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
No meio do ano,  os economistas de Harvard j\u00e1 percebiam um certo atraso na recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da economia. Mesmo assim, o tom de \u201cestamos-com-toda-a-raz\u00e3o\u201d n\u00e3o mudou:<\/div>\n
\n
Dado que nossas estruturas monet\u00e1rias e de cr\u00e9dito s\u00e3o n\u00e3o apenas profundas mas incomumente fortes, h\u00e1 todas as raz\u00f5es para a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o que, esperamos, n\u00e3o dever\u00e1 se atrasar mais. (WL<\/i>, 30 de agosto, 1930)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Chegou uma hora em que a nega\u00e7\u00e3o da realidade ficava \u00f3bvia. Mas o tom da Weekly Letter<\/i> passou a ser lac\u00f4nico e, por isso mesmo, quase autorit\u00e1rio:<\/div>\n
\n
[A] recupera\u00e7\u00e3o logo ser\u00e1 evidente. (WL<\/i>, 20 de setembro, 1930)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n
O panorama para o fim do decl\u00ednio nos neg\u00f3cios \u00e9 para a primeira parte de 1931 e […] o renascimento, para o resto do ano. (WL<\/i>, 15 de novembro, 1930)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Depois disso n\u00e3o houve mais previs\u00f5es otimistas na Weekly Letter<\/i>. Por que simplesmente n\u00e3o houve mais Weekly Letter<\/i>. Engolida pela depress\u00e3o que negava, a revista dos economistas de Harvard fechou as portas em 1931.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

> Economia \u00e9 uma coisa complicada e imprevis\u00edvel. T\u00e3o complicada e imprevis\u00edvel que os caras da Weekly Letter [Carta Semanal], a revista da Sociedade Econ\u00f4mica de Harvard, demoraram a perceber a gravidade da crise de 1929. Eis alguns excertos dos n\u00fameros da WL publicados durante o primeiro ano da Grande Depress\u00e3o: Uma depress\u00e3o severa como […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":486,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_eb_attr":"","editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"material-hide-sections":[],"pgc_sgb_lightbox_settings":"","_vp_format_video_url":"","_vp_image_focal_point":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[79,92,115,160],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-curiosidades","category-economia","category-fail","category-historia"],"yoast_head":"\n>Uma bolha de otimismo - hypercubic<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\/hypercubic\/2010\/12\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Renato Pincelli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. tempo de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/2010\\\/12\\\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/2010\\\/12\\\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Renato Pincelli\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c7be1e2811d061a75d3b4f4960eb53bd\"},\"headline\":\">Uma bolha de otimismo\",\"datePublished\":\"2010-12-01T13:42:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/2010\\\/12\\\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":330,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"curiosidades\",\"economia\",\"FAIL\",\"hist\u00f3ria\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-BR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/2010\\\/12\\\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/2010\\\/12\\\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.blogs.unicamp.br\\\/hypercubic\\\/2010\\\/12\\\/uma-bolha-de-otimismo\\\/\",\"name\":\">Uma bolha de otimismo - 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